AUTHORS: Thomas Bonnot, US Fish & Wildlife Service
ABSTRACT: From early hypotheses about theoretical impacts on physiology to more recent empirical studies linking climate change to habitat and phenology, researchers have sought to predict and adapt to the threats climate change poses for migratory birds. Although we are amassing a large body of data and evidence to map threats and inform conservation efforts, implementation gaps still exist and conservation decisions remain difficult. A new era of decision support tools are being developed that can better guide conservation in the face of uncertain futures, complex systems, and complicated situations. We will review some recent examples of these tools and describe where they have helped enable conservation planning for migratory birds. In one example, these tools highlighted how a seemingly local effect of warming temperatures on nest survival of a songbird could lead to regional extinction. In another example we will show how we can identify largescale visions for landscape work amidst urbanization and climate change. Through these examples we will also highlight key aspects of the tool development process that can promote successful application. Finally, we will discuss areas where we can continue to improve decision support tools.
