AUTHORS: Maddy Siller, South Dakota State University; David Coulter, South Dakota State University; Steven Chipps, U.S. Geological Survey; Mark Kaemingk, University of North Dakota; Taufique Mahmood, University of North Dakota; Matthew Maldonado, University of North Dakota; Michaela Neal, University of North Dakota; Ayon Saha, University of North Dakota; Alison Coulter, South Dakota State University
ABSTRACT: Many studies have documented a corresponding shift in fish communities caused by a changing climate. This poses potential problems for managers in the Northern Glaciated Plains where fishing generates millions of dollars annually for local and state economies, and cool-water fish like Walleye are extremely popular. The Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework is a new tool for responding to environmental changes due to climate change in ecosystems where there are elevated levels of uncertainty and variability. The RAD framework allows managers to determine if it is most advantageous to a) Resist the change by working to maintain the current ecosystem, b) Accept the changing ecosystem, or c) Direct the change to shape the ecosystem into a new one that achieves the manager’s goals. For this tool to be used, relationships between current habitat characteristics and fish communities need to be determined. Potential changes in fish communities can then be assessed using predicted future environmental conditions due to climate change. Our objective was to classify North and South Dakota lake fish assemblages based on environmental conditions using a multivariant regression tree (MRT). To create this MRT, we examined current environmental conditions including surface area, fetch, shoreline development index, water temperature, watershed area, and watershed land use. Future research will incorporate predicted environmental change to examine shifts in fish communities. The results of this study could guide managers in determining a) which lakes may be most at risk for experiencing changing fish communities, b) which RAD strategy could be best suited for each lake, and c) identify which lakes could be prioritized for ecosystem management (e.g., species and location of fish stocking, habitat renovations) to maintain angler satisfaction.
