AUTHORS: Brielle Thompson, Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Missouri; Mike Colvin, US Geological Survey, Columbia Environmental Research Center; Craig Paukert, US Geological Survey, Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit; Sara Reynolds, Missouri Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Missouri
ABSTRACT: Numerous species of invasive carp are currently established in the Missouri River Basin, causing natural resource managers to grapple with complex decisions involving how to best monitor and manage invasions. A new invasive carp species, the Prussian carp (Carassius gibelio), is established in the Canadian Provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan in waterways that provide a potential invasion pathway to the Missouri River. Prussian carp are a concern because they spread rapidly, reproduce asexually, and compete with native fish species for food and habitat. Given the risk of invasion into the Missouri River, US natural resource managers will likely need to develop early detection programs. A framework to track the Prussian carp distribution and project the spread of Prussian carp in Canadian waters is needed to inform allocation of early detection efforts in the US. We developed a dynamic multistate occupancy model that can use data from varying sources to estimate the annual distribution. The model also accounts for hydrologic and other connections among management units to project Prussian carp spread. We evaluated alternative spatial-temporal early detection plans with varying data stream combinations, including anticipated monitoring data such as eDNA data, detection/non-detection data, and presence only data. We compared alternative monitoring plans across varying levels of monitoring effort (i.e., the number of riverine management units monitored, and the types and combinations of data collected) to rank alternative Prussian carp monitoring plans. The modeling framework we developed can be applied to a variety of aquatic invasive species to inform distribution, evaluate monitoring programs within invaded areas, project spread, and inform the development of early detection programs.
